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U.S. September Housing Starts Estimated at 1.221 Million Annual Pace
21 October 2026

U.S. September Housing Starts Estimated at 1.221 Million Annual Pace

The data

U.S. housing starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million in September, according to the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development release on October 20. The revised August estimate was 1.288 million.

The reported monthly change was −5.2%, with a margin of ±11.8 percentage points at the 90% confidence level. That interval includes zero, so the estimated decline was not statistically significant. It does not establish that actual construction activity fell.

Building permits were at an annual pace of 1.400 million, 0.2% below the revised August figure. Single-family permits were 845,000, down 4.0% from 880,000. These annualized figures describe the seasonally adjusted pace; they are not counts of homes started or authorized during September.

Market perspective

The contrast between nearly flat total permits and softer single-family authorizations gives investors a reason to examine the composition of housing activity. Permits describe approvals, while starts track the beginning of construction: the two stages should not be treated as interchangeable.

For growth and interest-rate analysis, subsequent reports, revisions, mortgage rates and home sales will help determine whether this represents a lasting shift. One noisy monthly estimate cannot establish a sustained housing trend or a direction for the dollar.

Sources: Census Bureau and HUD release; official figures and statistical notes (PDF).

Residential construction in Richmond, Virginia, photographed on 9 March 2026 (file photo). Photo: Jpole1 / Wikimedia Commons, CC0. Photo source and licence.